Path-Q Solar

Can a smaller solar system deliver greater lifetime net savings than a larger one if the larger system exports substantial power?

Answer

Yes. A smaller system can produce greater lifetime net savings if its additional production is expensive to install or is compensated at a low export value. Compare each design's incremental cost with the value of its additional self-consumption and exports rather than assuming the largest system is best.

Key points

  • The larger system should be evaluated on its incremental production and incremental bill value.
  • Self-consumed generation may be worth more than exported generation.
  • Fixed costs, financing, degradation, maintenance, and replacement costs affect lifetime results.
  • A larger system may still be justified by future electrification or improved export terms.

What it depends on

  • System cost by size
  • Consumption and self-consumption rate
  • Export compensation
  • Future load growth
  • Financing, degradation, and replacement assumptions

Risks and trade-offs

  • A smaller system can leave future loads uncovered.
  • A larger system can have lower marginal returns if exports are low-value.
  • Long-term export or tariff changes can change the preferred size.

Information you may need

  • At least two system designs and itemized costs
  • Hourly usage and production estimates
  • Import and export valuation
  • Future electrification plans and financial assumptions

Your next step

What to do next

Compare the incremental lifetime cash flow of the larger design against the smaller design, focusing on the additional production that would be exported.

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