Path-Q Solar
What production estimate should I request to calculate solar savings realistically?
Answer
Request a time-based production estimate for the specific proposed design, preferably showing expected output by month and year, the assumptions behind it, and uncertainty or degradation. It should identify system size, orientation, tilt, shading, losses, equipment, weather basis, and how production is expected to align with your electricity use and export rules.
Key points
- A single annual production number is less useful than monthly or hourly output for savings analysis.
- Ask for assumptions about shading, soiling, snow or weather effects where relevant, equipment losses, degradation, and outages.
- Request separate estimates for self-consumed and exported energy rather than treating all production as equally valuable.
What it depends on
- Final system design and site conditions
- Historical weather and shading assumptions
- Household load profile
- Utility rates and export treatment
- Battery or load-shifting assumptions
Risks and trade-offs
- Overly optimistic production can inflate projected savings and payback.
- Actual savings depend on when energy is produced and consumed, not only annual kilowatt-hours.
- Design changes, shading, outages, and degradation can reduce output.
Information you may need
- Proposed system layout and equipment
- At least one year of electricity bills or interval usage
- Shading and site assessment
- Utility billing and export rules
Your next step
What to do next
Request the provider's monthly production file, assumptions, and low/expected/high scenarios, then compare it with your time-based electricity use.
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