Path-Q Solar

How should I estimate savings if my system may be placed under different export rules later?

Answer

Use scenario analysis rather than one export assumption. Model current rules, a less favorable export rate, limited exports, and a self-consumption-focused design, while including the cost and feasibility of storage or load shifting.

Key points

  • Separate on-site consumption savings from exported-energy revenue.
  • Apply each export scenario to the system's hourly production and load profile.
  • Include tariff changes, curtailment, fixed charges, battery losses, and replacement costs.
  • Use conservative scenarios for financing and payback decisions.

What it depends on

  • Current export terms and possible change mechanisms
  • Hourly load and production profile
  • Interconnection limit and curtailment risk
  • Storage, controls, and load-shifting costs

Risks and trade-offs

  • An export-heavy design may have weak economics under lower compensation.
  • Storage can protect against export changes but may not recover its cost through bills alone.
  • Future rules are uncertain, so a broad range is more informative than a precise forecast.

Information you may need

  • Current tariff and export agreement
  • Production and consumption data
  • Alternative system and battery designs
  • Utility change, curtailment, and interconnection provisions

Your next step

What to do next

Build a cash-flow model with at least four export scenarios and compare the design that remains acceptable under the least favorable plausible case.

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Some details may depend on your location, installer, utility, incentives, regulations, or specific property.

SQ02251