Path-Q Solar

How do changing export rates affect the value of a new solar system?

Answer

Lower or less predictable export rates reduce the value of solar electricity sent to the grid and increase the importance of using generation on-site, shifting loads, or adding storage. The effect depends on the difference between the cost of imported electricity and the compensation for exports, including fixed charges and any time-based rules.

Key points

  • Self-consumed solar generally avoids purchases at the applicable retail rate, while exported energy may receive a different credit.
  • A change in export treatment can reduce savings without changing the system's physical production.
  • Battery value increases when it can store excess generation and discharge during higher-value periods.
  • A system may need to be sized differently under low-export-value assumptions.

What it depends on

  • Current and expected export-credit rules
  • Retail rate structure and time periods
  • Household load profile and daytime usage
  • System size, production profile, and battery operation
  • Utility contract and regulatory changes

Risks and trade-offs

  • Forecasting future export rates is uncertain.
  • A battery adds cost, losses, maintenance, and eventual replacement considerations.
  • Oversizing a system can increase low-value exports.

Information you may need

  • Current utility rate and export terms
  • Historical interval usage if available
  • Proposed system production by time of day
  • Battery cost, usable capacity, and operating assumptions

Your next step

What to do next

Model the project under current, lower-export, and no-export-credit scenarios using your utility's actual tariff and expected load profile.

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