Path-Q Solar
When should I pause a solar project because the proposed savings depend on uncertain future usage?
Answer
Pause or redesign the project when the financial case depends heavily on loads that are uncertain, unscheduled, or not supported by evidence, especially if the system would be difficult to resize or expand. Proceed only after comparing realistic current, low-use, and high-use scenarios and understanding the consequences of each.
Key points
- Separate committed future loads from possible projects or behavioral assumptions.
- Request sensitivity analysis showing how production, bills, savings, and payback change under different usage levels.
- Check whether the system can be expanded, curtailed, or otherwise adapted.
- Avoid sizing solely to maximize modeled savings under an optimistic scenario.
What it depends on
- Confidence in future occupancy and appliance or equipment plans
- System expansion and control limits
- Electricity billing structure and export treatment
- Financing and contract obligations
Risks and trade-offs
- Proceeding too early may create an oversized system and weaker economics.
- Waiting may delay savings or leave future electrical work uncoordinated.
- Underestimating future loads can produce an undersized system.
- Modeled savings are not guaranteed if use, rates, or system operation differ.
Information you may need
- Historical bills and current load profile
- Documented future projects and timing
- Scenario-based production and financial model
- Expansion, modification, and contract terms
Your next step
What to do next
Ask for a three-scenario analysis using conservative, expected, and high future usage before deciding whether to sign.
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