Path-Q Solar

What solar system size is appropriate when my electricity consumption is still increasing?

Answer

Use a forecast of stable future consumption rather than simply extrapolating the latest increase. Include committed changes, such as electrification or household changes, but treat uncertain growth as scenarios and compare the cost and consequences of sizing now versus expanding later.

Key points

  • Separate temporary increases from durable new loads.
  • Use annual and seasonal consumption estimates, not only the most recent bill.
  • Ask whether the proposed equipment can accommodate later expansion.

What it depends on

  • Cause and expected duration of consumption growth
  • Planned EV, heating, water-heating, or other electric loads
  • Roof area, electrical capacity, and equipment expansion limits
  • Solar production and compensation assumptions

Risks and trade-offs

  • Oversizing for uncertain demand can increase upfront cost and excess production.
  • Undersizing may require a second project with additional design, labor, or equipment constraints.

Information you may need

  • At least a year of bills if available
  • A list and timing of planned new electrical loads
  • Installer design showing current and potential future capacity

Your next step

What to do next

Request proposals with current-load, expected-load, and high-growth scenarios, including the practical cost and limits of a later expansion.

Path-Q

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