Path-Q Solar

What assumptions can make a solar payback estimate misleading?

Answer

Misleading estimates often assume constant high electricity prices, full retail value for exports, perfect production, no degradation or repairs, guaranteed incentives, unchanged usage, and no financing or tax effects.

Key points

  • Check whether savings are gross or net.
  • Verify production, rate, and escalation assumptions.
  • Ask how equipment replacement and roof work are treated.

What it depends on

  • Model methodology
  • Utility rules
  • Contract and incentive evidence

Risks and trade-offs

  • Optimistic assumptions can make a poor investment appear attractive.
  • Some risks are difficult to quantify precisely.

Information you may need

  • Full calculation spreadsheet
  • Sensitivity cases
  • Evidence for rates and incentives

Your next step

What to do next

Recalculate and compare the estimate using conservative production, flat rates, lower export value, and explicit costs.

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SQ00057