Path-Q Solar
How should I value solar savings if I expect to use less electricity after retiring?
Answer
Base the valuation on a realistic future consumption profile rather than today's usage alone. Model retirement timing, seasonal use, major appliance changes, and the portion of solar production you can use or export, then compare a smaller system with a system sized for current demand.
Key points
- Lower future consumption can reduce the value of additional panels, especially when excess production receives lower compensation.
- Some retirement changes may increase electricity use, such as spending more time at home or adding electric heating or cooling.
- Use multiple consumption scenarios rather than one forecast.
- A smaller system may have better economics while still covering the most valuable usage.
What it depends on
- Expected future annual and hourly consumption
- Future appliance, heating, cooling, and vehicle plans
- Solar production profile
- Import and export valuation
- System cost and operating life
Risks and trade-offs
- Underestimating future use can lead to an undersized system.
- Overestimating use can lead to low-value exports and excess capital cost.
- Consumption changes are uncertain over a long ownership period.
Information you may need
- Recent interval or monthly electricity use
- Retirement date and expected occupancy pattern
- Planned electrification or efficiency upgrades
- System designs and assumptions for self-consumption and exports
Your next step
What to do next
Compare system economics under low, expected, and high future-use scenarios before selecting the design size.
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