Path-Q Solar
How much solar production should I expect from my proposed system?
Answer
Expected production must be estimated from system size, location, orientation, tilt, shading, weather, equipment losses, and availability. A credible estimate should show monthly and annual kilowatt-hours, the assumptions used, and an uncertainty range rather than relying only on the panel's rated capacity.
Key points
- Rated kilowatts describe capacity under test conditions, not actual annual energy.
- Shading, roof orientation, temperature, snow, soiling, outages, and inverter or wiring losses reduce output.
- Seasonal production can vary substantially even when the annual estimate is reasonable.
What it depends on
- Array size and equipment
- Roof orientation, tilt, shading, and site location
- Local weather and climate data
- System losses, degradation assumptions, and maintenance
Risks and trade-offs
- A sales estimate may overstate output if assumptions are unclear or shading is understated.
- Actual production varies by weather and cannot be guaranteed solely by a forecast.
- Oversizing may increase cost or exports without proportionate bill savings.
Information you may need
- Site survey and proposed layout
- Production model with monthly results
- Loss, degradation, and shading assumptions
- Historical electricity use and applicable export treatment
Your next step
What to do next
Request a written, site-specific production model and compare its assumptions with an independent estimate or a second installer proposal.
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SQ00525