Path-Q Solar
How can I tell whether an installer's production estimate is realistic?
Answer
Ask for the model inputs and compare the estimate with an independent solar-resource or production benchmark for the site. Check orientation, tilt, shading, equipment losses, weather assumptions, degradation, soiling, downtime, and whether the result is annual energy or bill savings.
Key points
- A credible estimate should identify system capacity, location, roof planes, shading, and loss assumptions.
- Compare expected output with site-specific tools, measured shade analysis, or another independent proposal.
- Check whether the estimate uses a typical year, conservative percentile, or best-case scenario.
- Confirm that production is not being confused with avoided bill cost or export value.
- Ask for monthly or hourly output so seasonal mismatch can be assessed.
What it depends on
- Site orientation, tilt, shading, and weather
- Module, inverter, and system configuration
- Loss, degradation, and availability assumptions
- Consumption and export treatment
Risks and trade-offs
- Optimistic production estimates can inflate savings and shorten stated payback.
- Independent tools also have uncertainty and may not capture unusual shading or equipment behavior.
- A production guarantee may have exclusions and may not guarantee financial savings.
Information you may need
- Full production model and assumptions
- Site survey or shade analysis
- Equipment specifications
- Independent production benchmark
- Contractual production guarantee and exclusions
Your next step
What to do next
Request the complete production report and have it checked against an independent site-specific estimate before comparing financial claims.
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