Path-Q Solar

How can I recognize an unrealistic solar production estimate?

Answer

An estimate deserves scrutiny when it lacks a site-specific layout, shading analysis, monthly figures, documented assumptions, or a clear explanation of losses and export limits, or when it predicts unusually high output relative to the roof, climate, orientation, and system size. Compare it with an independent model using the same inputs.

Key points

  • A credible estimate should identify system size, orientation, tilt, shading, losses, degradation, and weather basis.
  • Monthly production is more informative than a single annual number.
  • Check whether the estimate represents gross generation, usable household energy, or energy credited by the utility.
  • Ask how curtailment, downtime, and maintenance affect the forecast.

What it depends on

  • Local solar resource and weather basis
  • Roof orientation, tilt, shading, and obstructions
  • Equipment configuration and export restrictions
  • Modeling method and assumptions

Risks and trade-offs

  • Overstated production can distort system sizing, financing, and payback decisions.
  • A conservative estimate may appear less attractive but reduce disappointment risk.
  • Actual output varies by weather and equipment condition, so a forecast is not a guarantee.

Information you may need

  • Site-specific layout and shading report
  • Monthly production forecast and modeling assumptions
  • Equipment ratings and expected losses
  • Treatment of curtailment, downtime, and degradation

Your next step

What to do next

Ask for the complete production model and compare it with an independent estimate using the same system and site assumptions.

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