Path-Q Solar

Does electricity use that varies sharply by season make solar savings harder to estimate?

Answer

Yes. Seasonal variation makes savings harder to estimate because electricity demand and solar production may peak in different months, and exported energy may not have the same value as on-site use. Monthly or interval modeling is more reliable than applying one annual offset percentage.

Key points

  • Use a full year's monthly data and identify the cause of seasonal peaks.
  • Compare monthly solar production with consumption, self-consumption, exports, and grid purchases.
  • Include seasonal rate differences, demand charges, operating schedules, and planned changes.
  • Test multiple weather or production assumptions where the decision is financially significant.

What it depends on

  • Monthly or interval consumption patterns
  • Solar production by month and time of day
  • Rates, demand charges, export treatment, and seasonal pricing
  • Future changes in occupancy, operations, or equipment

Risks and trade-offs

  • Annual estimates can conceal costly seasonal shortfalls or low-value excess production.
  • A system that appears to offset annual use may not reduce the highest-cost usage periods.
  • Savings projections are sensitive to assumptions about rates, exports, degradation, and load growth.

Information you may need

  • Representative monthly bills and interval data
  • Operating calendar and seasonal load causes
  • Solar production model by month
  • Current rate, demand, and export terms

Your next step

What to do next

Request a month-by-month savings model using actual seasonal consumption and clearly stated current bill assumptions.

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SQ00258