Path-Q Solar
Can solar savings be estimated if my electricity use varies widely from month to month?
Answer
Yes, but use monthly or interval consumption rather than an annual average alone. A useful estimate matches seasonal solar production to seasonal demand and applies the relevant import, export, fixed, and time-based bill components to each period.
Key points
- Separate high-use months and identify whether they coincide with high or low solar production.
- Heating, cooling, occupancy, and business schedules can cause large seasonal differences.
- Annual energy coverage can overstate savings when production and consumption occur at different times.
- Use low, expected, and high consumption scenarios if the variation is caused by uncertain behavior or weather.
What it depends on
- Monthly or interval electricity consumption
- Solar production by month and time of day
- Electricity import and export billing structure
- Weather sensitivity and the causes of usage variation
Risks and trade-offs
- A simple annual-average model can misstate both savings and required system size.
- A system optimized for one unusual high-use year may be oversized for normal conditions.
- Changing rates or usage patterns can alter the result after installation.
Information you may need
- At least a year of itemized bills, preferably multiple years or interval data
- Solar production estimate by month
- Current tariff and export-credit assumptions
- Explanation of unusual high- and low-use periods
Your next step
What to do next
Request a month-by-month savings model using actual bill data and clearly stated rate and production assumptions.
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